All three of these polling agencies are reputable, so the reality is probably somewhere close to the average. Indeed, Pollster has Romney up 0.4% nationally (47.2% to 46.8%) while Polltracker has Romney up 1.1% (48.4% to 47.3%). Both Pollster and Polltracker use all possible polls to estimate support among likely voters. As a result, we expect Pollster and Polltracker estimates to be more accurate than just the individual polls, like Gallup, Rasmussen, and Ipsos/Reuters.
But for the sake of understanding what a best-case scenario might mean for Romney, let's assume the Gallup Poll released 10/16 reflects what will be the "true" support for the candidates on election day.
The geographic breakdown from this poll tells the story for Romney:
- East: Romney down 4%
- Midwest: Romney down 4%
- South: Romney up 22%
- West: Romney down 6%
This breakdown reveals that Romney is solidifying his support among those who were already leaning in his favor (the very red South). That's good for Romney's campaign, but a deeper look at the poll shows that he still struggles in swing-states, wherein all hopes of victory reside.
For this election, only two swing states are in the South: North Carolina, which seems to be in the bag for Romney, and Florida, which leans to Romney by less than +2%. In other words, six of eight swing states are in areas of the US where Obama has a solid lead.
The certainty of Romney's Southern support means that Romney could be up 45% in the South and it wouldn't affect the results of this election—although it would give him an eye-popping lead in a national poll like Gallup.
Chances for Victory Update
Here are the Chances for Victory if the election were held on 10/19/12:
- Obama - 99.35% (303 Electoral College votes most likely)
- Romney - 0.64%
- Tie - About 1 in 22600
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